Prior to the launch there were NOTAMs (Notices to Airmen) issued that warned of airways in the region of Tobolsk being closed around the expected launch time on Dec 23 and on the reserve days of Dec 24-27 inclusive. The distance from Plesetsk indicated that this was probably the anticipated landing zone of the spent second stage - ie the core of the Soyuz first stage.

News agencies initially reported the fault as a failure of the Fregat. Other than it having exploded, this was unlikely as it was not due to fire until about 40 minutes after launch when the vehicle would have been over Australasia.

Subsequent clarification confirmed that it was a third stage failure with a problem occurring 421 seconds after launch. This would have been about two minutes into the firing so it had travelled somewhat further than Tobolsk and on towards the Altai mountains and China. The Tobolsk report probably related to the expected impact of the second stage.

Later in the day, reports said that debris had been found in the Ordynskoye District near to Novosibirsk, about 2,550 kilometres from the launch site..

When the Soyuz third stage had finished its job, the whole stack including the fourth stage (Fregat) and the Meridian 5 satellite would have been following a sub-orbital, ballistic trajectory. After separation, the Fregat was due to make a small engine firing to take it into orbit while the Soyuz stage re-entered over the southern Pacific Ocean.

The map shows the area into which Stage 3 was expected to fall. If the Fregat engine had failed to fire then it would have joined the third stage here, rather than back in Russia where it actually impacted.