The Seeat-L discussion thread begins here .

When ESA published its data on the Phobos-Grunt re-entry, it made a point of saying that a re-entry time issued earlier by Spacetrack related to Phobos-Grunt at 80 kilometres altitude and that after another seven minutes, fragments would have been down to 10 kilometres.

Seven days before the planned re-entry of Progress M-13, Russia provided details of the re-entry location. They were incorporated into a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) issued by Chile that gave a period on Jan 25 (02:30 - 04;30 UTC), and the co-ordinates of a Danger Area due to "...rocket fragment submertion" (sic). The co-ordinates have been used to produce the yellow outlined area on the illustration.

A second NOTAM also appeared giving an back-up re-entry scenario about 20 hours later. Had it been used it would have resulted in Progress M-13M being destroyed, and Progress M-14M being launched, within a few minutes of each other.

A few hours before retro-fire, Russia provided a time at which fragments would fall into the Ocean - 03:17:56 UTC. after the event, the co-ordinates - 51.4° South, 128.2° West - were added. They were very close to the point at which Progress M-13M entered the NOTAM area.

The NOTAM area was elongated and it is uncertain whether it covered the expected scatter area or represents potential overshoot in the case of retro-fire being cut short. Evidence of the scatter scenario comes from the fact that it fans out - as would be expected if allowance was being made for sideways spread of fragments from the initial re-entry point.

There are some notes on the image that fitting that particular scenario but other explanations are possible.