March 31, Chinese news agencies reported that Shenzhou 10 had departed Beijing for Jiuquan.

The chosen transportation method was by air. Shenzhou 10 was split down into its three major components – service module, crew cabin and orbital module – and loaded onto two separate aeroplanes for carriage to the launch site. There, it will be reassembled, tested and, eventually, launched.

Here is a revised version of the timetable from the earlier zarya blog entry giving a detailed run-down on the mission. The new version is based on Shenzhou arriving at Jiuquan on April 1 by air rather than rail as in the original version. The table will be updated with actual dates as events occur.

The earlier version of the timetable assumed launch on June 10 in the middle of a seven day window. Events now indicate launch will probably be around June 7 as the window opens. Last year, Shenzhou 9 launched on the date the window opened so the new mission appears to be following suit.

A1486/13 - OID51 ACTIVATED, REF AIP PAGE ENR 5.1.3-5. DRG ACT
AWY B411 BTN DHN VOR/DME TO GIBAB AND AWY R794 BTN DHN VOR/DME AND
TBS VOR/DME CLSD. GND - UNL, JUN 2-3 / 0430-1130, 02 JUN 04:30 2013
UNTIL 03 JUN 11:30 2013. CREATED: 19 MAY 07:51 2013

Area OID51 is routinely closed for activity at Semnan whether orbital or not. The NOTAM also mentions temporary closure of airways B411 and R794 to be found just to the north, standard practice when OID51 is closed.

A1487/13 - OID90 ACTIVATED, REF AIP PAGE ENR 5.1.3-9. DRG ACT
AWY R794 BTN DHN VOR/DME AND TBS VOR/DME CLSD. GND - UNL, 
JUN 2-3 / 0430-1130, 02 JUN 04:30 2013 UNTIL 03 JUN 11:30 2013.
CREATED: 19 MAY 07:55 2013

Area OID90 is closed when orbital activity is planned. It covers the area under the rocket’s ascent path immediately it leaves the Semnan launch site. The NOTAM also references airway R794 because it passes close to that area too.

As to what is the potential payload, there are several possibilities among Iran’s recently unveiled space fleet so it is presently a game of ‘wait and see’.

The descent did not go 100 percent according to plan.

The photograph, courtesy of ЦСКБ Прогресс shows the descent cabin – the same design of vehicle, but with significantly updated electronics, that brought the first living space passengers back from orbit in 1960, and brought Yuri Gagarin back to Earth in April 1961.

This is a map showing events in the sequence from retro-fire to landing. Yellow segments of the orbit are where the spacecraft was in sunlight. The darker section is where it was in shadow.

Timetable for re-entry and landing was as below:(all time are UTC):

02:26 – 381 seconds of Retro-fire when above the southern Atlantic Ocean while Bion was in the Earth’s shadow. The pre-landing announcement gave 02:13 UTC when Bion would have been above the Pacific Ocean.

02:32 – Approximate time of Descent Cabin separation at 545 kilometres above the Earth while over Africa. The attached service module or instrument unit accompanied it into the atmosphere but burned up as it had no heat shield.

02:56 – Start of re-entry 110 kilometers above Turkey.

03:01 – Parachute opening at 9 kilometers altitude. The pre-event announcement gave 10.7 km.

03:12 – Touchdown at 51° 53′ north, 54° 20′ east. The location was about 85 kilometers short of the announced target near Bulanovo, but marginally within the error ellipse which was ±90 km along track and ±10 km cross-track.

The recovery team consisted of two fixed wing aircraft, seven helicopters and two all terrain motor vehicles. the fact that it was so-far off the target point may be the reason for no immediate release of images of either the descent or of the spacecraft immediately post-landing.

2013 May 13 at 13:00 UTC, Chinese scientists once again successfully tested a high-altitude scientific exploration vehicle. The experiment used a high-altitude sounding rocket with a Langmuir probe, energetic particle detectors, magnetometers, an apparatus to release barium powder and other scientific payloads. The equipment was used for exploration of the ionosphere, high-energy particles and magnetic fields in near-Earth space, measuring their strength and structure.

The experiment was launched from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center. Preliminary analysis by the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences shows the experiment obtained data from various heights in the space environment and measured the vertical distribution of scientific data. It achieved the desired purpose, allowing China to accumulate valuable data to help develop its own space environment monitoring and to enhance the safety of space activities.

What Does the Announcement Actually Say?

The described mission in reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s “Vertikal” programme from the 1970s and 1980s. A high altitude sounding rocket based on a missile/space launcher was used to send a payload as high as 1500 kilometres above the Kapustin Yar launch site. The objectives of the Vertikal missions were very like the description applied to the current Chinese launch.

The Chinese document is as notable for what it doesn’t say as it is for actual content. There is no mention of the launch vehicle used and no indication of the height achieved. It potentially fuels the idea that this was a rocket test rather than a space probe and that the instrumentation was mounted on board because it was an opportunity that presented itself.

Update

On May 14, the Chinanews website published some further detail using an interview with Gong Jian of the National Space Science Center, a deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. He said that the altitude reached was about 10,000 kilometers and that the canister of Barium powder released its content at apogee.

There it would have produced a glowing cloud as the Barium atoms became excited and ionised by solar radiation. Movement and expansion of the ionised cloud would have been used to study the magnetosphere at the release point. By measuring the position of the cloud against the night sky from several locations on the earth, the precise position and trajectory of the payload could have been determined. At the very least, it would have confirmed that the desired apogee was reached. A similar technique using Sodium allowed measurement of the trajectories of early Soviet lunar probes.

Trajectory

The launch time was chosen so that the rocket ascended against a dark sky. It did mean that the exhaust plume it was seen by the public over large tracts of China between Xichang and the coast.

The NOTAM zone was closer to Xichang than for an orbital mission and is indicative of a relatively-steep trajectory. It also shows that the rocket headed south-east. With the high apogee, it would have travelled a long way out over the Pacific Ocean, taking it towards Yuan Wang 3, one of China’s ocean-going tracking ships that was stationed on the equator at about 160° east longitude. The ship would have been able to receive data from the lower segment of the downward path as the probe dropped below the horizon as seen from the mainland.

The Hong Kong movie referred to in an earlier zarya.info blog entry seems to show burnout of the rocket. The earlier suggestion that it shows the rocket tilting in flight is probably a misinterpretation of the way the vapour trail was dragged to one side by high altitude winds after the rocket flame was extinguished. Using the position of the Moon and its distance above the horizon in the movie as a measurement reference, burnout occurred about 500 kilometres above the Earth.

Moving back the launch time by ten minutes between the orginally-timetabled May 12 event and the actual launch on May 13 is intriguing. There is no obvious natural event that would necessitate it, so it points to the possibility of an interaction between the ascending rocket and something already in orbit.

One scenario is that the trail and Barium cloud were monitored by a satellite. Howevever, looking at all Chinese satellites launched since the beginning of 2007 fails to produce a candidate that was nearby on the two days, and ten minutes earlier on the second one. That takes us into the realms of the ASAT theorists where the ‘target’ might have been an inert rocket body or similar, of which there are many in orbit. It could have been aimed at a very close pass without actually hitting the target.

In summary

This was a large rocket that went to high altitude. The primary driver of the mission was almost certainly to test the rocket. The payload effectively went along for the ride. The type of rocket is yet to be revealed but it is either a new development or a significantly new variant of an existing space launcher or missile.

From locations near Xichang, the view was of a bright dot ascending in the sky because observers were looking directly at the tail of the rocket exhaust. Further east, the view was of a fuzzy triangle with a bright light at the apex pointing in the direction of travel. One movie from Hong Kong, nearly 1400 kilometres from Xichang, shows an ascending bright light with a trailing exhaust plume. The translation from vertical to horizontal flight is very obvious as its ascent ceases and the light disappears, possibly when the body of the rocket comes between the exhaust and the photographer. Because the light from the exhaust disappeared from view, the photographer assumed he was looking at a failure, with the rocket shutting down.

See this blog entry updated information including the launch announcement by China.

None of the images shows the staging that might have been expected in order for something to fall in the impact zone defined in the NOTAM. There were also no obvious reports from Taiwan which was directly under the flight path. It is possible that the object did not reach as far as Taiwan or that all rocket stages were spent by the time it reached there. On balance, it was probably a long-range mission. Extension of the ground track takes it out to the central Pacific to the area where the Yuan Wang 3 tracking ship was known to be stationed for the previous week’s Chinasat 11 launch. Shorter test flights from Chinese sites tend to be directed EASTWARD towards unpopulated areas of the Gobi desert.

The azimuth of the ground track was 103° that would have produced an inclination of 31° for an orbital object. As of 19:30 UTC on launch day, there had been no news announcement from China and no data from SpaceTrack on anything new.

We have to wait and see what China or its watchers come out with over the next few days. One developing channel of thought is of an ASAT (anti-satellite weapon) aimed at high altitude. There was a time change between the May 12 and May 13 NOTAMs where the launch seemed to move ten minutes earlier as a result of the 24 hour delay. Sunset will have moved a couple of minutes LATER so that can be ruled out as the reason.

If an object already in orbit was the driver then the ten minutes originates from it having an orbital period that brings it round ten minutes earlier each day. A check of all low orbiting Chinese satellites launched since the beginning of 2008 does not produce any obvious candidates. However, an ASAT test could involve a spent rocket stage.

At the moment it’s a case of “wait and see” what develops over the next few hours.

May 12, China’a air traffic management issued a NOTAM for the Kunming Flight Information Region. It was in the style of those usually issued in association with satellite launches….. but no launch was anticipated. It is not unusual to see NOTAMs like this for missile or rocket tests:

A0523/13 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: 
N272440E1062527-N270348E1061854 -N271521E1053214-N273614E1053838 
BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS: SFC-UNL.ALL ACFT ARE PROHIBITED TO 
FLY INTO THE AREA. SFC - UNL, 13 MAY 12:47 2013 UNTIL 13 MAY 13:36
2013. CREATED: 12 MAY 11:34 2013

It describes a rectangle with its long axis pointing directly at the Xichang launch site and access is restricted on May 13 between 12:47 UTC and 13:36 UTC. Satellite launches usually result in NOTAMs covering less than 30 minutes but this is a little longer in duration, suggesting that there is a short launch window involved. With satellites, lift-off usually comes 5-15 minutes after the start of the restricted period.

The NOTAM points to a launch between about 12:55 and 13:25 UTC. It replaces an earlier one published May 10 and covering a potential launch on May 12.

The restriction times on the new NOTAM are ten minutes earlier in the day than the original, suggesting a possible relationship with something in orbit.

Compared with the recent Xichang launch of Chinasat 11, the zone is a little to the south of the usual satellite launch track, and is about 405 kilometres from the launch site compared with 615 kilometers for the satellite.

It is not clear what components of the launcher/missile might fall in the area. it may be a rocket stage, strap on boosters or something like a payload fairing but, as this doesn’t seem to be an orbital launch, a fairing is less likely unless the test is of a payload rather than a rocket.

Local time will be around 21:00 and the launch heads towards the east and into the night hemisphere of the Earth. This might indicate that the prime objective is a successful launch rather than picking up something at the end of it as might be the aim with a payload. With the time moving earlier by ten minutes with a one day delay in launch, it questions whether the launch is an observation target for something already in orbit.

Other zones may be set aside for further debris. Not all components of a satellite launch get a NOTAM for example. Some components may fall in areas where there is already a permanent civil air traffic exclusion, making a NOTAM unnecessary.

We may have to wait until after May 13 to find out exactly what is being flown.

Arianespace’s light-lift Vega launcher performed an intricate mission from the Spaceport today, successfully delivering three satellite passengers at two different Sun-synchronous orbital altitudes during a flight lasting just over two hours.

It was Vega’s second mission from French Guiana, and further demonstrated the capabilities of a vehicle that completes Arianespace’s launcher family – joining its medium-lift Soyuz and heavyweight Ariane 5.

Under a steady rain, Vega’s P80 solid propellant first stage is ignited to begin the light-lift launcher’s 2-hour mission from the Spaceport to deploy the Proba-V, VNREDSat-1 and ESTCube-1 satellite payloads.

“This launch confirms the full functionality of Vega, which is totally operational and ready to offer the best service to our customers,” explained Stéphane Israël, Arianespace’s new Chairman and CEO.  “With its three launchers operational at the Spaceport, Arianespace is the only launch services provider capable of placing all types of satellite payloads into all types of orbits.”

Today’s mission, designated Flight VV02 in Arianespace’s launcher family numbering system, included numerous “firsts” for Vega.  Arianespace assumed Vega operations responsibility for the first time on this mission, which followed the lightweight launcher’s February 2012 qualification flight performed under responsibility of the European Space Agency (ESA).

The launch also marked the initial use of a multi-payload dispenser called VESPA (Vega Secondary Payload Adapter), which carried the Proba-V satellite atop it, while the VNREDSat-1 and ESTCube-1 spacecraft were installed inside the system.  Additionally, VREDSat-1 became the initial commercial satellite lofted by Vega.

In another first, today’s mission was the debut of the Europe Space Agency’s VERTA (Vega Research and Technology Accompaniment) flight series to demonstrate the launcher’s flexibility and versatility.

Lifting off May 6 in rainy French Guiana conditions, Vega departed the Spaceport’s SLV launch facility at the planned precise moment of liftoff at 11:06:31 p.m. and disappeared into the cloud cover.

After the initial powered phase performed by Vega’s three solid propellant stages (designated the P80, Zefiro-23 and Zefiro-9), the launcher’s AVUM upper stage was ignited for four separate burns during the payload deployment sequence.  A final burn was planned to deorbit the upper stage – ensuring it does not remain as a debris threat.  The AVUM has a bipropellant propulsion system to provide orbital injection, along with a monopropellant propulsion system for roll and attitude control.

Vega is ready for its second mission from the SLV launch site. The four large towers protect against lightning strikes, while the facility’s mobile gantry has been rolled back to the parked position.

The Proba-V satellite was released first during the flight profile, with this passenger to operate in a Sun-synchronous orbit of 820 km.  Proba-V (which is named from the acronym: Project for On-Board Autonomy and Vegetation) is part of the European Space Agency’s Proba spacecraft series that supports the development of new space technologies.  Its primary objective is to continue the mission performed by Earth-monitoring Vegetation instruments carried on the Spot 4 and 5 satellites – which also were launched by Arianespace – and is designed to offer global coverage every two days for data on the influence of climate, the management of resources for surface water, monitoring of changes in agricultural zones, and food security estimates.

Proba-V was built by QinetiQ Space Belgium, and weighed approximately 140 kg. at launch.

The VNREDSat-1 optical satellite was separated in the second step of today’s mission, providing a resource for Vietnam’s initiative to create an infrastructure enabling better studies of climate change effects, improving predictions for natural disasters and optimizing natural resource management for the country.  This 115-kg.-class spacecraft was built by Astrium on behalf of the Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST).

Completing the mission was Vega’s deployment of ESTCube-1, Estonia’s first satellite.  The 1.33-kg. cubesat will extend a small conductive tether for testing of electric solar wind sail technologies, and also is to help establish an Estonian infrastructure for future space projects.  It resulted from a collaboration of students from Tartu University, Estonian Aviation Academy, Tallinn University of Technology and University of Life Sciences, and was developed in conjunction with the Finnish Meteorological Institute and the German Space Center (DLR).

Both VNREDSat-1 and ESTCube-1 were released for their operational lifetimes in Sun-synchronous orbits, bringing Vega’s 2-hour flight to a successful conclusion on May 7.

Vega is tailored for launching 1,500-kg.-class payloads to a reference altitude of 700 km., providing Arianespace with a vehicle capable of accommodating scientific, governmental and commercial satellites.  It was developed in an European Space Agency program financed by Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Sweden.   The Vega launcher’s design authority and prime contractor is Italy’s ELV company – a joint venture of Avio and the Italian Space Agency.

Arianespace’s next mission from the Spaceport is scheduled for June 5, using an Ariane 5 to orbit the European Automated Transfer Vehicle named after Albert Einstein.  It will be followed by a Soyuz flight – also scheduled in June – with the first four satellites for O3b Networks.  Completing Arianespace’s current launcher family activity at the Spaceport are preparations for another Ariane 5 mission, planned for the second half of July with the Alphasat and Insat-3D satellites.

在过去的几周内中国的新闻通讯社和新闻报纸数次报道了即将进行的航天任务。这些都是来自官方的关于航天任务的确切消息，是真实可信的。大多数消息是通过中国载人航天工程办公室［China Manned Space Engineering Office (CMSEO)］发布。

2月28日，新华社报道中国载人航天工程办公室透露神舟十号已经完成总装并在进行测试。发射使用的运载火箭也已经完成测试。据报道航天员的训练正在按计划进行， 发射场、飞控中心和着落场准备迎接航天任务的到来，天宫一号运行状态良好。

2月4日，天宫一号的运行轨道进行了必要的提升以 补偿过去几个月以来空气阻力造成的轨道降低。

任务

神舟十号仍将从与神舟九号相同的地方发射。中国计划快速地从试验飞行转到常规飞行，所以把神舟十号任务当成为第一次常规任务。这也许意味着中国的航天工作者认为已经没有重大的工程难题，所有计划中的事情要么已经完成或者要么可以在已有经验基础之上来实现。

此次任务主要目的有四：

一是为天宫一号在轨运营提供人员和物资天地往返运输服务，进一步考核交会对接、载人天地往返运输系统的功能和性能；

二是进一步考核组合体对航天员生活、工作和健康的保障能力，以及航天员执行飞行任务的能力；

三是进行航天员空间环境适应性、空间操作工效研究，开展空间科学实验、航天器在轨维修试验和空间站有关关键技术验证试验，首次开展面向青少年的太空科学讲座科普教育活动等；

四是进一步考核工程各系统执行飞行任务的功能、性能和系统间协调性。

一个猜想是跟神舟八号和神舟九号接近天宫一号的方式不同，神舟十号会采用稍稍不同的方式，它会慢慢地从下方用“R-bar”方式靠近，这种方式在航天飞机对接国际空间站时常采用的方式［译者注：在哥伦比亚航天飞机失事后，航天飞机在对接国际空间站之前需要调整姿势与地心垂直 （称为 R-bar），让空间站内的航天员进行目视检查和拍照来判断隔热层有无损坏］。过去，神舟飞船跟天宫调整到相同的轨道上之后，从前方接近天宫，神舟九号在采用手动方式与天宫再次对接时，则是采用了从后方接近的方式。

中国载人航天工程办公室的任务描述中提及了进行飞船和目标飞行器间自动和手工交会对接，这像是在重复神舟九号的任务，首先进行飞船和目标飞行器间自动交会对接，然后飞船从天宫分离，接着再进行飞船和目标飞行器间手动交会对接之后航天员进入到天宫一号之内来结束整个任务。中国载人航天工程办公室同时提到神舟十号将会进行绕天宫一号的飞行，为将来中国拥有大型的空间站之后，将设备转移到到其他对接口时进行调姿积累经验。

在天宫一号的对接设备是按照可以交会对接六次来设计，神舟八号和神舟九号两次任务已经各进行了两次对接，在神舟十号完成余下的两次对接后，天宫一号目标飞行器也将完成其设计寿命。

发射日期

在2012年11月的时候中国宣布神舟十号任务将在今年6月到8月间进行，目前还是保持相同的口径。相对较长的时间范围可以给最终确定发射日期留下一定的灵活性，以满足建立时间窗口的各种因素。

神舟十号也会按照前几次同样的飞行规则，参考在轨的太阳角度。

神舟十号可能会放在六月发射，并在当月完成任务。若有推迟，也可以稍稍晚一点进行，在七月八月间结束任务。

神舟飞船的发射日期需要根据预定的飞船回收当日太阳的位置来确定，请参考 Zarya.info 发射窗口 页面

由于神舟飞船需要发射到跟天宫一号相同的运行平面上入轨，而且又要满足飞船在任务结束回收时满足跟太阳位置的限制条件，飞船发射只有为数不多的几个发射时间窗口。在六月到八月间进行飞行任务，有如下几个可选择的发射时间窗口，
2013年5月25日 – 2013年5月31日 (一类型射窗口)
2013年6月7日 – 2013年6月13日 (二类型射窗口)
2013年7月15日 – 2013年7月21日 (一类型射窗口)
2013年7月28日 – 2013年8月3日 (二类型射窗口)

通常对每一个选择窗口，最理想的日子是在那一个时间范围的中间日。可也不一定，神舟九号就是在发射窗口打刚开的最初时候发射的。

中国大约想选择六月七号到十三号作为神舟十号的发射窗口。据报道神舟十号飞船将在四月从北京运送到发射场，从以往几次发射任务的安排推算这应是发射前的两个月完成。

六月份上半月窗口是二类发射窗口，在载人航天任务中更常采用。只有包含了太空行走任务（EVA）的神舟七号那次是个例外。

放弃二类发射窗口能够给脱轨和着落带来的好处，主要还是为了在轨运行时出舱进行太空行走时的光线条件。 对于二类发射窗口进行的航天任务，航天员需要在轨道背光的时候进行太空行走准备，在有太阳照射时才能出舱， 而对于在一类发射窗口进行的航天任务，最后的开舱准备工作和太空行走都可以在太阳照射下的轨道进行。

通过二类发射窗口进行的航天飞行其主要优势是在着陆场的黎明时分进行着陆，若在定位返回舱和搜救航天员比预想困难，需要更多时间的情形下保证有充分的光线条件，而更重要的是制动点火能够发生在太阳照射时，让航天员可以通过目视太阳方位来确定飞行方向是否正常。

通过一类发射窗口进行的航天飞行其着落通常需要在傍晚时分或者在夜晚时分进行，离完全暗下来并没有多少时间了。

如果不能按期在六月初的发射窗口执行神舟十号飞行任务，最有可能是将发射安排在七月份末的二类发射窗口进行，然后在8月12日到8月18日之间着落。这两个二类发射窗口都吻合“在六月到八月间执行神舟十号任务”的口径。

任务时间

神舟十号计划在轨时间15天，从发射到与天宫一号对接需两天时间。航天员将在天宫一号上工作将近12天，在与天宫一号分离后近24小时后脱轨并着落。

若任务时间短于一个月，神舟在轨时间应为奇数天。地面轨迹按照标准的神舟／天宫334公里的轨道高度计算应该是每隔一天重复，也就是在轨道一天后，三天后，五天后从着落场上空飞越。 按照一定的周期经过酒泉卫星发射场。

发射时间

因为要跟已经在轨的天宫一号目标飞行器进行交会对接，具体的发射时间需要根据酒泉发射场何时经过天宫一号的轨道来确定。

对于六月初的发射时间窗口，具体的发射时间建议如下（误差正负十分钟）：
Jun 7, 11:40 UTC, 6月7日，北京时间19点40分
Jun 8, 11:12 UTC, 6月8日，北京时间19点12分
Jun 9, 10:45 UTC, 6月9日，北京时间18点45分
Jun 10, 10:17 UTC, 6月10日，北京时间18点17分
Jun 11, 09:50 UTC, 6月11日，北京时间17点50分
Jun 12, 09:22 UTC, 6月12日，北京时间17点22分
Jun 13, 08:54 UTC. 6月13日，北京时间16点54分

类似的其他发射窗口居中日的发射时间（误差正负十分钟）：
May 28, 16:16 UTC, 5月29日，北京时间0点16分
Jul 18, 16:00 UTC, 7月19日，北京时间0点0分
Jul 31, 10:21 UTC. 7月31日，北京时间18点21分

发射任务时间表

经过多次神舟发射任务，主要步骤已经可以固化为一个可预测的时间表，但是不可能完全保证神舟十号最后也照此执行。如果发射时间瞄准为6月11日，那么下面的表格给出了主要时间点。记住神舟九号是在发射窗口打开之初实施发射升空的，如果这次也这么做，那么以下时间点需要提前三天。

最早可判断任务是否按期实施要看飞船是否在四月初的头几天内运往发射场。

航天员选拨

航天员乘组会在发射前宣布。网络上有些论坛在热烈地讨论猜测谁将成为此次发射任务的航天员。实际上，中国会在在离发射前的几天时间从可能的六位航天员中间作出选择，那时候选航天员已经完成了相关的训练并通过必要的理论科目和操作科目，也完成了心理和生理上的各项检查。

此次任务也会考虑包含一名女性航天员。在2012年刘洋随神舟九号飞船到达天宫一号，其时她是两位受训的女航天员之一。为了公关需要刘洋紧接着参加第二次飞行任务的几率很小。如果神舟十号指定一名女航天员，最可能的候选人是王亚平，她是神九备份受训航天员。

神舟十号任务完成之后

当神舟十号回收及整个此次航天任务结束之后，天宫一号会再次独立运行。由于没有计划后续对接任务，它的最终命运会跟其他不再需要的航天器一样，它会被控制重入大气层并解体，通过大气层没有燃尽的部件最终会掉到南太平洋的底部。

天宫二号计划在2014年间发射但是中国尚未透露此方面消息。假设天宫目标飞行器是为建造空间站开展的一个试验平台，天宫二号任务势在必行。

余下的信息纯粹属于不基于任何事实的猜测。

中国希望实践试空间站的补结和补充燃料等领域。猜测天宫二号将会进行补充燃料的尝试。它或许会跟天宫三号对接 。一个很像和平站的未来拥有多模块的空间站示意图也显示会有补给船与之对接。

如果战略上能够解决足够分的水和食物的补结，将来可能会尝试超过神舟十号十五天的飞行任务时间。

补充阅读

people.com – 神舟十号飞船运抵酒泉 6月至8月将择机发射(图)
zarya.info – Tiangong 1 and Shenzhou 10 – Update (blog entry)
zarya.info – Tiangong 1 Orbit History
zarya.info – Tiangong 1 and Shenzhou 10

The launch location, and the launch direction for the missile test will be significantly different from last December’s orbital mission. The test is likely to take place from the eastern coast of the Korean peninsula. This map shows some of the options. It is not an analaysis of the political situation, or of the missile capability, but it does try to take account of what North Korea’s limits might be.

North Korea is highly unlikely to send a missile directly over Russian or Chinese territory. The reaction of either might not be good! That will limit operations to launching on an azimuth between 63° and 200° (WNW to SSE).

Whatever happens, the trajectory will pass over Japanese territory given that Japan’s islands extend all the way to Taiwan.


Missile Range to Potential Targets

The ‘Russian’ limit means that, even if a missile had the range, it would not be able to impact the US mainland on a direct trajectory. The route, and it would be limited to a west-coast impact, would involve a significant, high-energy, left-turn after reaching the southern tip of Sakhalin Island. To achieve it, the missile would have to follow a very flat trajectory with a long burn-time for the missile engines – more like a satellite launch than the short-burn, high apogee, trajectory employed by a ballistic missile. It is a technique tested by the Soviet Union during the 1960-1970 period as FOBS.

Excluding the US mainland, the only significant US targets in the sector are Guam and the Hawaiian Islands. There is also the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site around the Marshall Islands but if that can’t be defended, nothing can.

For interest only, the intended track of Kwangmyongsong 1 – North Korea’s first, failed, satellite launch is shown.