Late October 24, SpaceTrack issued element sets relating to eighty items of Debris in orbits similar to that occupied by the Briz-M Rocket that launched Telkom 3 and Express MD-2 into unusable orbits on August 6. The total is a few more than the twelve claimed by Russia but falls well short of the 1000+ count attributed to a SpaceTrack quote a few days ago.
The Briz-M and its attached Auxiliary Propellant Tank were last reported on October 16 with a Twoline orbital Elements set having an Epoch just after 18:00 UTC. It showed the object to be in an orbit 264 km x 1512 km at 49°.9 inclination. SpaceTrack reported later the same day that it was analysing debris resulting from fragmentation of the rocket. It took another eight days before orbit data was released into the public domain.
Orbital plots created using the Orbitron satellite tracking programme indicate that the disintegration occurred at 16:00 UTC ±30 minutes on October 16.
This is earlier than the Epoch on the final element set but it has to be remembered that element sets are computed from multiple observations and then an orbit is calculated for a set time. An element set is constructed using that time. The discrepancy indicates that the observational data was collected at about the time of the explosion and then projected forward to the beginning of the next circuit of the Earth.
This first plot shows the locations of the catalogued items on October 16 at 16:00 UTC.
Most of them are bunched closely together. A small number are scattered around the orbit. The reason for the scatter is uncertainty in the decay rates contained in the element sets that were issued eight days after the event.
For comparison, the two diagrams below show the postions at two other times. The slightly wider scattering of the objects is obvious in both cases, confirming that 16:00 is a good estimate of when the disintegration occurred. The first is for 13:40 UTC. It represents one circuit of the Earth earlier than at 16:00 UTC.
The is for 18:20 UTC, one circuit of the Earth later than 16:00 UTC. The wider scattering is obvious.
An earlier note on the original launch failure can be found at the zarya.info web site.