Feeling the Heat!
Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.
Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.
NOTE - Names used here are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in the Orbital Focus tables.
Anticipated Re-entries
Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages that are updated each week on Thursday at about 01:00 UTC. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the actual re-entry list further down the page.
Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz or a Dragon spacecraft returning from the ISS.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Predicted Date UTC |
Prediction Issued UTC |
52330 | 2022-044A | COSMOS 2555 | 2022 May 18 | 2022 May 18 | 52428 | 2022-047AL | ELECTRON R/B | 2022 May 18 | 2022 May 18 | 44374 | 2019-037K | PROMETHEUS 2-7 | 2022 May 20 | 2022 May 19 | 45258 | 1998-067RB | PHOENIX | 2022 May 31 | 2022 May 19 | 47925 | 1998-067SB | RSP-01 | 2022 May 31 | 2022 May 19 | 44366 | 2019-037B | PROMETHEUS 2-9 | 2022 Jun 3 | 2022 May 19 | 46927 | 1998-067RX | DESCENT | 2022 Jun 6 | 2022 May 19 | 46921 | 1998-067RR | SPOC | 2022 Jun 9 | 2022 May 19 | 46923 | 1998-067RT | NEUTRON-1 | 2022 Jun 9 | 2022 May 19 | 44369 | 2019-037E | ACRUX 1 | 2022 Jun 10 | 2022 May 19 | 47931 | 1998-067SH | GUARANISAT-1 | 2022 Jun 17 | 2022 May 19 |
Recent TIP Messages
Publication of TIP messages is not a matter of routine and they are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table and take precedence over them.
Readers unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.
Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list to the 'Recent' list.
List updated: 2022 May 19, 22:47 UTC
Cat No & Designation |
Name (Space-Track) |
Predicted Date & Time UTC |
Lat, Long & Heading (10 km altitude) |
TIP Message Issued UTC |
52508 2021-103B | DRAGON ENDURANCE DEB | 2022 May 21 03:03 ± 540 minutes | | 2022 May 19 05:27 | 52428 2022-047AL | ELECTRON R/B | 2022 May 18 12:13 ± 42 minutes | 18°.8 south, 14°.6 west southbound, ± 0.5 orbits | 2022 May 18 17:07 | 52330 2022-044A | COSMOS 2555 | 2022 May 18 01:53 ± 37 minutes | 15°.4 north, 146°.4 east southbound, ± 0.4 orbits | 2022 May 18 06:52 | 52319 2022-037B | AXIOM-1 DEB | 2022 May 14 09:02 ± 1 minutes | 79°.1 north, 135°.3 east northbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2022 May 14 10:06 | 49126 2021-080B | CZ-3B R/B | 2022 May 12 09:35 ± 1 minutes | 19°.6 north, 60°.1 east northbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2022 May 12 10:25 | 26102 2000-014A | MTI | 2022 May 14 01:15 ± 1 minutes | 79°.1 north, 135°.3 east northbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2022 May 14 08:57 |
Recent Re-entries
This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. The list is updated every few hours.
Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Date UTC |
52330 | 2022-044A | COSMOS 2555 | 2022 May 18 | 52428 | 2022-047AL | ELECTRON R/B | 2022 May 18 | 42851 | 2017-042AC | FLOCK 2K 04 | 2022 May 17 | 42873 | 2017-042BA | FLOCK 2K 44 | 2022 May 17 | 26102 | 2000-014A | MTI | 2022 May 14 | 49126 | 2021-080B | CZ-3B R/B | 2022 May 12 | 42699 | 2017-025B | FALCON 9 R/B | 2022 May 11 | 42897 | 2017-042CA | FLOCK 2K 06 | 2022 May 9 | 45410 | 2020-019BC | STARLINK-1285 | 2022 May 9 | 45257 | 1998-067RA | OBJECT RA | 2022 May 6 | 49407 | 2021-103A | DRAGON ENDURANCE | 2022 May 6 | 47926 | 1998-067SC | OBJECT SC | 2022 May 5 | 44282 | 2019-029AZ | STARLINK-80 | 2022 May 4 | 44911 | 2019-097B | CZ-5 R/B | 2022 May 4 | 47312 | 2021-002D | OBJECT D | 2022 May 4 | 51440 | 1998-067TC | OBJECT TC | 2022 May 3 | 42896 | 2017-042BZ | FLOCK 2K 09 | 2022 May 1 | 47924 | 1998-067SA | OBJECT SA | 2022 May 1 | 43933 | 2019-003B | ORIGAMISAT-1 | 2022 Apr 30 | 45262 | 1998-067RF | RADSAT-U | 2022 Apr 30 | 46571 | 2020-070AR | STARLINK-1753 | 2022 Apr 30 | 46797 | 2020-074BL | STARLINK-1947 | 2022 Apr 30 | 47755 | 2021-017AK | STARLINK-2172 | 2022 Apr 30 | 47765 | 2021-017AV | STARLINK-2183 | 2022 Apr 30 | 49964 | 2021-122D | CZ-4B R/B | 2022 Apr 30 | 42854 | 2017-042AF | FLOCK 2K 47 | 2022 Apr 27 | 44790 | 1998-067QV | RWASAT-1 | 2022 Apr 27 | 52204 | 2022-037A | AXIOM-1 | 2022 Apr 25 | 42894 | 2017-042BX | FLOCK 2K 11 | 2022 Apr 24 | 47156 | 2020-088AL | STARLINK-1870 | 2022 Apr 24 | 47758 | 2021-017AN | STARLINK-2176 | 2022 Apr 23 | 48590 | 2021-041AP | STARLINK-2246 | 2022 Apr 23 | 47553 | 2021-009F | STARLINK-1951 | 2022 Apr 22 | 41788 | 2016-059F | CANX-7 | 2022 Apr 21 | 42892 | 2017-042BV | FLOCK 2K 14 | 2022 Apr 20 | 44355 | 2019-036S | BRICSAT 2 | 2022 Apr 20 | 44791 | 1998-067QW | AQT-D | 2022 Apr 20 |
Note on TIP Messages
Close to re-entry time for many items, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.
The message includes an estimated latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground based on the estimated time. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In most cases, it is meaningless in practical terms because of length of the Window included in the Message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.
TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.
Page information updated as available
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